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Defines accuracy against the day one forecast rather than the revised one, which is the single change that makes the metric honest. Includes the grading bands most leaders now quote.
The Definitive Way to Measure and Grade Sales Forecast Accuracy
From Forrester by Dana Therrien 7 min read
- Forecast accuracy is the absolute percentage gap between the Day One forecast and actual results at period end.
- Grade it: within plus or minus 5 percent is excellent, 5 to 10 percent good, beyond 10 percent terrible.
- Using absolute value means sandbagging counts as inaccurate, not as prudence.
