Essay

The Never Ending Road To Product Market Fit

Brian Balfour · brianbalfour.com Free Intermediate

If your worry is whether the product itself is the problem, the honest signal is the shape of your retention curve, and Balfour explains how to read it. A curve that keeps sliding to zero means no fit yet, a curve that flattens for some segment means you have found fit for that group. He frames fit as a progression through survey signal, engagement, and retention rather than a single yes or no, which keeps you from over reading one week of churn.

  • A retention curve that flattens (levels off) for some segment is the clearest product side signal of fit, one that never flattens is not.
  • Pair the curve with engagement data and qualitative survey signal, no single metric decides it.
  • Fit is not a permanent verdict, markets move, so treat the diagnosis as ongoing.
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It answers 3 questions

  1. How do I know when something we shipped is actually working versus just launched?
  2. Referral or paid ads, which should a bootstrapped founder with almost no marketing budget lean on first?
  3. When is it worth hiring a growth person or setting up a real growth process, versus keeping it founder-led?

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