Video · 4 min

a16z Video: S-curves in Innovation

Benedict Evans · Andreessen Horowitz Free Intermediate

A short primer on how real technologies move from ignored to inevitable in an S shaped curve, and why early flatness fools people into calling something a fad. It gives you a picture for where a trend sits on its curve, so you can ask if adoption is about to inflect or has already peaked. Helpful vocabulary for judging durability.

  • Real adoption follows an S curve, slow, then sudden, then saturated
  • Early slowness is not the same as failure
  • Locate where a trend sits on the curve before betting on it
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The question it answers

  1. How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?

Read with it

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