Template · Spreadsheet

Free Bottoms-Up TAM Template

Scalepath Free Intermediate

A structured spreadsheet that makes you fill in the number of target customers, your unit economics, and your serviceable and obtainable slices. Using a template like this stops you hand-waving, because every cell needs an assumption you can point to. Useful once you have the raw counts and prices to plug in from your customer conversations.

  • A template forces an explicit assumption behind every line of the estimate.
  • Bottoms-up sizing is customer count multiplied by realistic revenue per customer.
  • Separating TAM, SAM, and SOM keeps the ambition and the near term honest.

The question it answers

  1. How do I estimate a market size when the product I'm building doesn't have a category yet?

Read with it

  1. The single best thing ever written on customer conversations. It teaches you to ask about the customer's life and past... momtestbook.com Book · ~130 pages The Mom Test Rob Fitzpatrick
  2. The definitive essay on where good ideas come from: notice problems you personally have, don't force it. Use it as the lens for... paulgraham.com Essay · ~20 min read How to Get Startup Ideas Paul Graham
  3. The essay that put 'product-market fit' into the startup vocabulary. Read it for the gut-level description of what PMF feels... pmarchive.com Essay · ~15 min read The Only Thing That Matters Marc Andreessen
  4. The definitive short read on why disruptive ideas get dismissed as toys, and why that dismissal is your opening. It reframes... cdixon.org Article · ~5 min read The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy Chris Dixon
  5. The author of Crossing the Chasm explaining beachhead selection in plain, modern language, the fastest way to absorb the... Lenny's Podcast / Lenny's Newsletter Podcast · ~75 min Geoffrey Moore on finding your beachhead, crossing the chasm, and dominating a market Lenny Rachitsky & Geoffrey Moore
  6. Most market sizing advice online is generic TAM SAM SOM filler. This one is written by an investor, backed by a survey of 30... Pear VC Essay · ~15 min read Market Sizing Guide Ian Taylor
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