Article · 10 min read
Riskiest Assumption Test
ModelThinkers Free Intermediate
Your short answer tells founders to design the cheapest test that would move one of them, and this is the clearest write-up of exactly that method. It shows how to isolate the single riskiest assumption behind a disagreement and disprove it with the smallest possible experiment, well before building anything. The Airbnb example makes it concrete and repeatable.
- Isolate the one assumption whose failure would sink the case
- Test it the cheapest, fastest way that could disprove it
- State up front what result would change your mind
