Book · 352 pages

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner · Penguin Random House Paid Intermediate

The trap in trend spotting is confident prediction, and Tetlock's research shows the people who are actually good stay probabilistic, gather signals from many sources, and keep score. It hands you the habits (write down your call, revisit it, update) that turn hunches into a track record. This is what keeps your practice honest instead of just confident.

• Think in probabilities, not yes or no calls.
• Write down predictions and grade them later.
• Update quickly when new evidence arrives.