Book · 224 pages

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital

Carlota Perez · Goodreads Paid Advanced

Perez shows that real technological revolutions run on 50 year cycles with a predictable frenzy, a crash, and then a long deployment where the durable value actually shows up. It reframes bubbles as a normal phase of a real shift rather than proof it was fake. Read it to tell the difference between a passing mania and the early froth of something structural.

  • Real revolutions include a bubble, so hype alone proves nothing
  • Durable value shows up in the long deployment phase, not the frenzy
  • Structural shifts follow a recognizable multi decade pattern

It answers 3 questions

  1. How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?
  2. As a non-technical founder, how do I evaluate a tech-heavy trend like AI without getting fooled by hype?
  3. How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking?

Read with it

  1. The definitive essay on where good ideas come from: notice problems you personally have, don't force it. Use it as the lens for... paulgraham.com Essay · ~20 min read How to Get Startup Ideas Paul Graham
  2. Video · ~50 min How to Evaluate Startup Ideas Kevin Hale, Y Combinator
  3. Moore's classic maps the market you are timing your entry into: innovators and early adopters buy for very different reasons... Goodreads Book · ~250 pages Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers Geoffrey A. Moore
  4. Video · 7 min The single biggest reason why startups succeed Bill Gross
  5. Neumann applies Perez's framework to software to ask where we actually are in the cycle and what that means for which markets... Reaction Wheel Essay · 30 min read The Deployment Age Jerry Neumann
  6. The single best thing ever written on customer conversations. It teaches you to ask about the customer's life and past... momtestbook.com Book · ~130 pages The Mom Test Rob Fitzpatrick
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