Essay · 9 min read

The 1% TAM Myth: Why Most Market Sizing Is Just Theater

Angus Norton · Angus Norton, Predict Free Intermediate

This essay dismantles the seductive but hollow logic of if we just capture one percent of a huge market. It explains why that top-down framing signals lazy thinking to investors and what to do instead. Read it so you never lead with the number that undermines your credibility.

• The one percent of a giant market claim reads as a confession of laziness
• A defensible number is built from customers, not carved off an industry total
• Bottoms-up sizing shows you understand demand at a granular level