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The Success of Persistent Entrepreneurs

Paul Gompers et al. · Harvard Business School Working Knowledge Free Advanced

This summarizes the landmark study on whether past success predicts future success. The honest data: previously successful founders do better than first-timers, but the edge is real rather than overwhelming (roughly a 34 percent hit rate versus 22 percent). It grounds your question in evidence, your exit tilts the odds, it does not guarantee the next win.

• Prior success raises your odds but does not remove the risk.
• The advantage is modest, not a sure thing.
• Part of the edge is timing and market skill, not magic.