Article · 7 min read

The Definitive Way to Measure and Grade Sales Forecast Accuracy

Dana Therrien · Forrester Free Advanced

Defines accuracy against the day one forecast rather than the revised one, which is the single change that makes the metric honest. Includes the grading bands most leaders now quote.

  • Forecast accuracy is the absolute percentage gap between the Day One forecast and actual results at period end.
  • Grade it: within plus or minus 5 percent is excellent, 5 to 10 percent good, beyond 10 percent terrible.
  • Using absolute value means sandbagging counts as inaccurate, not as prudence.
Open on forrester.com ↗

It answers 5 questions

  1. How do I forecast my own quarter as an AE so my manager stops overriding my number?
  2. How do I call a quarterly number I can actually defend to my CEO and my board?
  3. We miss the forecast almost every quarter. How do I actually fix accuracy?
  4. How do the very best forecasting teams actually run their week?
  5. What do elite revenue teams do in the last three weeks of a quarter that ordinary teams do not?

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