How do I call a quarterly number I can actually defend to my CEO and my board?
Build it three ways and show the range, not a single figure: bottom up from deal level commits with entry criteria applied strictly, top down from historical stage conversion applied to today's pipeline (the version that ignores rep optimism), and a capacity view of productive reps times realistic productivity. If the three land within about ten percent of each other, call the middle and sleep. If they diverge badly, that divergence is the real finding and you should present it as such rather than quietly averaging it away. Then say out loud what would have to go wrong for you to miss and what would have to go right to beat it. A number offered with its assumptions is defensible, a number offered alone is just a promise.
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Defines accuracy against the day one forecast rather than the revised one, which is the single change that makes the metric honest. Includes the grading bands most leaders now quote.
Gives testable definitions for pipeline, best case and commit, including the entry criteria a deal must meet. Copy these into your CRM and most forecast arguments disappear.
Explains why the 3x rule of thumb is wrong for most teams and shows how to derive your own coverage number from your actual win rate. Weighted versus unweighted coverage is handled properly too.
A look inside how one of the most scrutinised forecasts in software is actually built and rolled up, which is a useful sanity check before you present your own three views to a board.
