Article · 90+ slides

Benedict Evans: annual tech trend presentations

Benedict Evans · ben-evans.com Free Intermediate

Twice a year Evans publishes a free deck reading the macro and strategic shifts in tech, strong on second order effects, not just that something changes but what it drags along with it. It is a worked example of how a careful analyst separates a real structural shift from noise. Study it as a model for how to think, not only for what to think.

  • Big shifts matter most for their second order effects.
  • Ground trend claims in data, not vibes.
  • Copy the reasoning method, not just the conclusions.
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It answers 4 questions

  1. How do I spot trends early enough to build a startup on them?
  2. How do I tell the difference between a real trend and a passing fad?
  3. How do I tell the difference between a trend that only matters to Silicon Valley and one that will actually land in India?
  4. As a non-technical founder, how do I evaluate a tech-heavy trend like AI without getting fooled by hype?

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