Ideas & Opportunity

How do I tell the difference between a real trend and a passing fad?

A starting point

A real trend is powered by a durable shift in technology, cost, or behaviour that only moves one direction; a fad is powered by novelty and hype that fades. Ask whether the underlying enabler keeps getting cheaper or better every year, because that's what compounds. If the only fuel is Twitter buzz, wait; if the fuel is a cost curve, move.

Go deeper

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📄 Article
Free Beginner

The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy

From cdixon.org by Chris Dixon ~5 min read

Why we picked it

The definitive short read on why disruptive ideas get dismissed as toys, and why that dismissal is your opening. It reframes what looks trivial today as the thing that owns the market tomorrow, essential for spotting trends before they're obvious.

  • Disruptive products launch under-powered and get laughed off by incumbents.
  • Because experts ignore 'toys,' the early builder gets a head start no one contests.
  • Judge a fast-growing product by what it becomes in five years, not what it does today.
Open cdixon.org →
📄 Article
Free Intermediate

12 Things About Product-Market Fit

From a16z.com by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) ~20 min read

Why we picked it

The nuanced counterweight: PMF isn't a single binary moment, it can be lost, and 'market' is doing more work than founders think. Read after the Andreessen essay to avoid the common traps.

  • PMF is a spectrum, not an on/off switch, and it can decay.
  • Product-user fit often comes before product-market fit.
  • Beware false positives from a small, unrepresentative group.
Open a16z.com →
✍️ Essay
Free Intermediate

The Only Thing That Matters

From pmarchive.com by Marc Andreessen ~15 min read

Why we picked it

The essay that put 'product-market fit' into the startup vocabulary. Read it for the gut-level description of what PMF feels like when it's happening vs when it isn't, the intuition behind the metrics.

  • Market matters most; a great market pulls product out of a startup.
  • You can feel PMF, customers buy as fast as you can ship.
  • Before PMF, do whatever it takes to get there; nothing else counts.
Open pmarchive.com →

People also ask

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