Essay · 12 min read

Not even wrong: ways to predict technology

Benedict Evans Free Intermediate

This is the single closest essay to your question. Evans argues that saying "that looks like a toy" or "people always said that" tells you nothing, and that the only real test is whether you have a specific theory for why the technology gets better and why people change their behavior and stay changed. It gives you the exact mental move that separates a durable shift from a hype spike.

  • Skepticism and optimism are both empty without a concrete reason attached
  • Ask what has to improve (cost, capability) and whether there is a path for it to
  • A real market needs a reason people adopt a new behavior and do not revert
Open on ben-evans.com ↗

It answers 2 questions

  1. Everyone says the next big thing looks like a toy. What does that actually mean?
  2. How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?

Read with it

  1. The definitive essay on where good ideas come from: notice problems you personally have, don't force it. Use it as the lens for... paulgraham.com Essay · ~20 min read How to Get Startup Ideas Paul Graham
  2. The definitive short read on why disruptive ideas get dismissed as toys, and why that dismissal is your opening. It reframes... cdixon.org Article · ~5 min read The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy Chris Dixon
  3. Thiel's core move is to start by owning a small, specific market completely before expanding, which is the same instinct behind... Goodreads Book · 224 pages Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future Peter Thiel with Blake Masters
  4. India's best long-form podcast with B2B SaaS founders who cracked global GTM from India, hosted by a 2x founder and Neon Fund... The Neon Show (formerly 100x Entrepreneur) Podcast · podcast series (200+ episodes) The Neon Show (Indian SaaS founders on GTM & sales) Siddhartha Ahluwalia
  5. Long-form, candid interviews with Indian founders and investors on how they actually grew, distributed and built brand, one of... The Neon Show / Neon Fund Podcast · 200+ episodes The Neon Show (100x Entrepreneur Podcast) Siddhartha Ahluwalia
  6. CB Insights read hundreds of real startup postmortems and found that poor product-market fit (around 43 percent) is the single... CB Insights Article · ~15 min read The Top 12 Reasons Startups Fail CB Insights
eChai Partner Brands The partnership →