Essay · 30 min read

The Deployment Age

Jerry Neumann · Reaction Wheel Free Advanced

Neumann applies Perez's framework to software to ask where we actually are in the cycle and what that means for which markets are real now. It is a rigorous, founder oriented way to reason about whether a shift has moved from speculative installation to durable deployment. A strong bridge between the theory and a present day bet.

  • Where a technology sits in its cycle changes what bets are real
  • Installation phase rewards speculation, deployment rewards steady building
  • Match your market thesis to the actual phase, not the headlines
Open on reactionwheel.net ↗

It answers 2 questions

  1. How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?
  2. How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking?

Read with it

  1. The definitive essay on where good ideas come from: notice problems you personally have, don't force it. Use it as the lens for... paulgraham.com Essay · ~20 min read How to Get Startup Ideas Paul Graham
  2. Moore's classic maps the market you are timing your entry into: innovators and early adopters buy for very different reasons... Goodreads Book · ~250 pages Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers Geoffrey A. Moore
  3. Video · ~50 min How to Evaluate Startup Ideas Kevin Hale, Y Combinator
  4. Video · 7 min The single biggest reason why startups succeed Bill Gross
  5. Perez shows that real technological revolutions run on 50 year cycles with a predictable frenzy, a crash, and then a long... Goodreads Book · 224 pages Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Carlota Perez
  6. The definitive short read on why disruptive ideas get dismissed as toys, and why that dismissal is your opening. It reframes... cdixon.org Article · ~5 min read The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy Chris Dixon
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