Video · ~7 min

The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed

Bill Gross · TED Free Beginner

Gross ranked hundreds of startups (his own and others') across five factors, and timing came out on top, ahead of team, idea, business model, and funding. It is the most cited, data-backed case that when you enter a market can outweigh almost everything else. Watch it as a starting point for weighing timing seriously, while remembering it is one founder's dataset, not a law.

• Across the companies he studied, timing accounted for roughly 42 percent of the difference between success and failure, the largest single factor.
• Airbnb and Uber worked partly because they launched exactly when people needed extra income and were ready to share, examples of demand catching up to the idea.
• The practical test he offers: look hard at whether customers are genuinely ready for what you are offering yet.