Article · ~20 min read

The Tactical Guide to Making Better Decisions When Starting and Scaling Companies

Annie Duke (via First Round Review) · First Round Review Free Intermediate

This is the framework for acting decisively without certainty. Duke, a former pro poker player, teaches founders to judge the quality of the decision, not the outcome (she calls the trap "resulting"), and to shrink every call to its smallest, most reversible version: "Is there a way for me to make this a smaller decision than the one I am considering?" That is exactly how you stop needing to know how it all ends and just make the next move.

• Separate decision quality from outcomes: a good process can still get an unlucky result, so stop grading yourself only on how things turned out
• Every decision is a bet on an unknown future, so make your reasoning explicit rather than trusting gut feel
• Shrink the horizon: ask "what's the smallest, cheapest, most reversible version of this?" so low-stakes calls move fast and only truly irreversible ones get deliberation