Why we picked it This is the exact move your answer prescribes, from the former pro poker player who turned it into a discipline. Duke tells you to run a pre-mortem before you start, imagine the failure, name the early warning signs, and commit in advance to a tripwire (a specific metric plus a timeline) so you quit on data instead of on despair. Her line that founders should benchmark against concrete signals like usage thresholds and unit economics, and that if you are already wondering whether to quit it is probably overdue, is the antidote to the bootstrapper who drifts for years on savings and hope.
A framework for making better decisions (setting kill criteria in advance)
From Lenny's Newsletter by Annie Duke (interviewed by Lenny Rachitsky) ~25 min read
- Set kill criteria before you launch: a specific metric and a date, decided while you are still clear-headed, so the decision to stop is already made when the number comes in.
- Use a pre-mortem: picture the business having failed, list what early signals would have predicted it, and turn those signals into your tripwires.
- If you are already asking whether to quit, the honest answer is usually that it is overdue, because sunk cost and attachment make founders hold on far too long.