Future Foundry

Why we picked it Waitlists and fake door landing pages are prone to false positives, and this essay names exactly how: broad, outcome-selling copy pulls in people who click because it sounds interesting, not because they have the problem. It walks through a real case where 2,847 signups drove a funding decision, then only 3% converted at launch. It is a good starting point for anyone tempted to treat a fat signup list as proof, because it shows how to design the test so the number means something.

Why everyone gets fake door tests wrong

From Future Foundry by Jacob Dutton ~10 min read

• Big signup totals from a generic fake door or waitlist are often false confidence: people opt in because the promise sounds appealing, not because they will buy.
• A cautionary case: 2,847 signups justified a build, but launch conversion was only 3%, because the test optimized for volume instead of qualification.
• Add qualification questions and immediate post-signup interviews, and measure engagement depth, so you are filtering for genuine prospects rather than counting curious clicks.