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Why we picked it This is the piece that named the problem you are asking about: the difference between numbers that make you feel good and numbers you can actually act on. Eric Ries (the Lean Startup guy) wrote it as a guest post, and it is still the clearest short read on why a traffic spike or an upvote count tells you almost nothing. Treat it as a starting point for deciding which one or two numbers your launch should live or die by.
Vanity Metrics vs. Actionable Metrics
From The Blog of Tim Ferriss by Eric Ries 10 minute read
- A metric is only useful if a change in it tells you what to do next. Total hits and signup counts almost never pass that test.
- Cohort analysis (following a group of users through registration, trial, and purchase over time) shows whether your launch actually changed behaviour, or just briefly inflated the top of the funnel.
- Look at per-customer and per-segment numbers, not one big aggregate, because a healthy total can hide the churn and drop-off that decide whether a launch worked.