Essay

The Case Against A/B Testing at Early-Stage Startups

Andrew Cohen · Entrepreneur Free Beginner

This is the honest counter-argument most growth advice skips: when you have low traffic, formal A/B tests usually cannot reach significance for weeks or months, and the setup cost is real. Cohen, a founder himself, says name the problem plainly and lean on focus groups, hallway usability tests, and judgment until you actually have the volume. Read it as a starting point for deciding whether a test is even worth running yet, not as a verdict against ever testing.

  • Young products rarely have the sample size to make an A/B result trustworthy, and running one anyway burns founder time better spent on product-market fit.
  • Early traffic is often skewed (one launch, one ad blast), so even a significant-looking result may not reflect real users.
  • Small qualitative checks like a quick usability session or talking to a few users can be enough signal at this stage.

The question it answers

  1. How do I run a growth experiment properly when my user numbers are too small for statistical significance?

Read with it

  1. Before you run anything, put your real numbers into this and see how many conversions per variant you would actually need. It... evanmiller.org Tool Sample Size Calculator (Evan's Awesome A/B Tools) Evan Miller
  2. Torres takes the next step after you accept you cannot reach significance: figure out what you are actually trying to learn,... Product Talk Article What to Do When You Don't Have Enough Traffic to A/B Test Teresa Torres
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