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Benedict Evans

2 resources from Benedict Evans we point founders to, and the questions each answers.

✍️ Essay
✓ Link checked Free Intermediate

Why we picked it This is the sharpest short essay on why a naive market number lies to you. Evans shows that a new product can either shrink a market (cheaper, lower revenue per user) or explode it (many more users, new uses), so copying an existing industry's revenue is not your TAM. Read it before you write a single number, because it reframes TAM as a judgment about who buys and why, not a spreadsheet.

Ways to Think About Market Size

From Benedict Evans by Benedict Evans about 1,200 words

  • A better, cheaper product changes the market, so today's industry size is only a proxy
  • Ask who buys now and who buys once it is good enough and affordable
  • Numbers are a starting point for judgment, not a substitute for it
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Answers What are TAM, SAM, and SOM and how do I actually calculate them?
✍️ Essay
✓ Link checked Free Intermediate

Why we picked it This is the single closest essay to your question. Evans argues that saying "that looks like a toy" or "people always said that" tells you nothing, and that the only real test is whether you have a specific theory for why the technology gets better and why people change their behavior and stay changed. It gives you the exact mental move that separates a durable shift from a hype spike.

Not even wrong: ways to predict technology

From Benedict Evans by Benedict Evans 12 min read

  • Skepticism and optimism are both empty without a concrete reason attached
  • Ask what has to improve (cost, capability) and whether there is a path for it to
  • A real market needs a reason people adopt a new behavior and do not revert
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Answers Everyone says the next big thing looks like a toy. What does that actually mean? How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?
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