Ideas & Opportunity

Market size & timing

Is it big enough, and why now?

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How do I estimate a market size when the product I'm building doesn't have a category yet? When there's no clean market to point at, build the number from the behavior you're replacing, not from an analyst report that doesn't exist yet. C... Advanced 3 resources → How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year? Look for a durable structural shift underneath the excitement: a cost curve that dropped, a regulation that changed, a new default behavior that pe... Advanced 3 resources → My market is huge on paper but almost nobody is actually paying for solutions today. Good sign or bad? A big market with no spending usually means one of two things: you've found a real gap others missed, or there's a reason nobody pays that you have... Advanced 3 resources → How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking? Pressure-test the tailwind by asking what specifically has already happened versus what you're hoping will happen. A regulation that's passed and e... Advanced 3 resources →