Ideas & Opportunity
Market size & timing
Is it big enough, and why now?
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How do I estimate a market size when the product I'm building doesn't have a category yet?
When there's no clean market to point at, build the number from the behavior you're replacing, not from an analyst report that doesn't exist yet. C...
How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?
Look for a durable structural shift underneath the excitement: a cost curve that dropped, a regulation that changed, a new default behavior that pe...
My market is huge on paper but almost nobody is actually paying for solutions today. Good sign or bad?
A big market with no spending usually means one of two things: you've found a real gap others missed, or there's a reason nobody pays that you have...
How do I size a market I want to sell to businesses outside the big Indian startup hubs?
Public data thins out fast once you leave the metros, so build the number from the ground: count the actual businesses (GST registrations, industry...
How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking?
Pressure-test the tailwind by asking what specifically has already happened versus what you're hoping will happen. A regulation that's passed and e...
My total market looks small, but each customer is worth a lot. Can a low-count, high-value market still work?
Yes, and it's often a better business than a huge market of tiny accounts, because a few hundred customers each paying serious money can build a re...