Market size & timing

Is it big enough, and why now?

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How do I estimate a market size when the product I'm building doesn't have a category yet? When there's no clean market to point at, build the number from the behavior you're replacing, not from an analyst report that doesn't exist yet. C... Advanced 18 resources → How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year? Look for a durable structural shift underneath the excitement: a cost curve that dropped, a regulation that changed, a new default behavior that pe... Advanced 19 resources → How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking? Pressure-test the tailwind by asking what specifically has already happened versus what you're hoping will happen. A regulation that's passed and e... Advanced 19 resources → Everyone says my market is too niche to be venture-scale. When are they right, and when are they wrong? They're right when the niche has a hard ceiling and no believable path to a bigger adjacent market: you win everyone and you're still small. They'r... Advanced 19 resources →

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