Find & validate your idea
Market size & timing
Is it big enough, and why now?
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Why does 'why now?' matter so much for a startup idea?
Most great startups ride a change that just made something newly possible or newly cheap: a new technology, regulation, behaviour, or cost curve. I...
How do I estimate a market size when the product I'm building doesn't have a category yet?
When there's no clean market to point at, build the number from the behavior you're replacing, not from an analyst report that doesn't exist yet. C...
How do I tell whether a market is genuinely emerging or just a fad that will fade in a year?
Look for a durable structural shift underneath the excitement: a cost curve that dropped, a regulation that changed, a new default behavior that pe...
Is it smarter to enter a market while it's still forming, or wait until demand is obvious and proven?
Entering early buys you a shot at owning the category, but you pay for it by spending years educating customers who aren't ready, and early is ofte...
How do I know if the timing tailwind I'm counting on (a new regulation, a new tech) is real or wishful thinking?
Pressure-test the tailwind by asking what specifically has already happened versus what you're hoping will happen. A regulation that's passed and e...
Everyone says my market is too niche to be venture-scale. When are they right, and when are they wrong?
They're right when the niche has a hard ceiling and no believable path to a bigger adjacent market: you win everyone and you're still small. They'r...
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