Essay · ~8 min read

15 years of Zerodha: The risk crystallises

Nithin Kamath · Zerodha (Z-Connect) Free Intermediate India

This is a founder who built India's largest broker while being openly, publicly pessimistic about his own business for years, and then watched the exact risk he named materialize as a 40% revenue drop. He writes the numbers cold (STT changes, expiry cuts, the revenue hit) and in the same breath holds the long-term mission steady. It is the rare first-person Indian account of running both modes at once: sell and build the future, read the numbers without flinching, and refuse to let either one win.

• Kamath had been flagging the broking model's fragility for years, so when revenue dropped ~40% he had already priced the honesty in. Name the risk out loud before it arrives.
• He reads the quarter cold but decides on a 5-year moving average, showing you can be brutal about the data and long-term about the mission simultaneously.
• Being private and profitable is what buys the freedom to be this honest. Financial discipline is what earns you the right to stay optimistic.