Tool · Downloadable Excel template plus short guide

The easiest spreadsheet for churn, MRR, and cohort analysis

Christoph Janz (Point Nine Capital), guest post on Andrew Chen's blog · andrewchen.com Free Beginner

This is the template to stop guessing a single LTV number and plot your actual cohorts instead. You type in only the basics (how many customers you acquired each month and how many stayed each following month) and it works out retention, churn, MRR, and per-cohort lifetime value for you, so three months of data becomes three honest cohort rows rather than one made-up figure. It is a founder-friendly starting point, not a forecasting engine, which is exactly what you want this early.

  • You only enter basic cohort data (acquired and retained per month); retention, churn, MRR, and LTV are calculated automatically.
  • Plotting your real cohorts side by side shows you the retention curve you actually have instead of a churn rate you assumed.
  • With only a few months in, treat the LTV cells as a live, updating estimate that firms up as each cohort ages, not a locked-in answer.

The question it answers

  1. How do I estimate LTV when I have only three months of data and no idea what my real churn or retention curve is yet?

Read with it

  1. This is the piece that made cohort-based LTV the default way serious investors think, and it is exactly the right medicine when... Social Capital / The Startup (Medium) Article · About 20 minute read Diligence at Social Capital, Part 3: Cohorts and (revenue) LTV Jonathan Hsu
  2. Video · Short explainer (under 15 minutes) Customer Retention & Cohort Analysis: How VCs Calculate Customer Retention YouTube
eChai Partner Brands The partnership →