Forecasting and GTM metrics

Pipeline coverage, stage conversion, CAC payback, magic number, and calling a number you can defend to a board.

All Breaking into GTM Doing the work Leading a GTM team How the best do it

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Everyone Founder doing GTM Founding AE SDR or BDR Growth and demand gen RevOps Sales leader

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How do I calculate conversion rates by stage, and what do I actually do once I have them? Calculate them on a cohort, not on a snapshot. Take every opportunity created in a month, follow that same set forward, and measure what share reac... Doing the work 3 resources → Our win rate dropped this quarter. How do I work out why rather than just guessing? Cut it four ways before you form a theory: by lead source, by segment or deal size, by rep, and by competitor present or not. One of those cuts alm... Doing the work 3 resources → How do I tell whether my pipeline is real or just hopeful? Age it and test it. Pull every open opportunity, sort by days since the last customer initiated action, and treat anything past two normal sales cy... Doing the work 3 resources → How do I call a quarterly number I can actually defend to my CEO and my board? Build it three ways and show the range, not a single figure: bottom up from deal level commits with entry criteria applied strictly, top down from ... Leading a GTM team 3 resources → What should I actually put in front of the board every quarter, and in what shape? Same package, same order, every single quarter, in a trailing nine quarter format so trends and seasonality are visible without anyone doing mental... Leading a GTM team 3 resources → We miss the forecast almost every quarter. How do I actually fix accuracy? Start by measuring it properly, because most teams grade themselves against a forecast they revised in week eleven. Forrester's definition is the h... Leading a GTM team 3 resources → How do the very best forecasting teams actually run their week? They separate three meetings that most teams collapse into one. A deal review, where the conversation is about strategy on named opportunities and ... How the best do it 3 resources → Do the classic SaaS metrics still work if we are an AI native company? Partly, and the parts that break matter. ARR assumes a stable recurring subscription, but usage priced AI revenue swings with consumption, so a sin... How the best do it 3 resources → What do elite revenue teams do in the last three weeks of a quarter that ordinary teams do not? Very little that is dramatic, which is the point. The work that decides the quarter was done in weeks one to four, so the last three weeks are spen... How the best do it 3 resources →

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