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This is the clearest explainer of the single most useful test in our short answer: does the cost of the enabler fall a fixed percent every time cumulative production doubles. Wright's Law gives you a way to forecast cost curves for batteries, gene sequencing, compute, and more. When a cost curve is real, the trend compounds whether or not anyone is talking about it.
Wright's Law
From ARK Invest by ARK Invest ~10 min read
- Costs fall a predictable percent for every doubling of cumulative production.
- A falling cost curve is what makes a trend compound over time.
- Forecast the enabler's cost, not the current level of hype.
