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Why we picked it This is the academic name and definition for exactly the failure mode in the question: people systematically overstate what they would pay or do when asked to imagine a future scenario. It is worth two minutes if you want the research behind why hypotheticals lie to you, not just the startup version of the wisdom.
Hypothetical bias
From Catalog of Bias 3 minute read
- Hypothetical bias is a documented, named phenomenon in behavioral research, not just startup folklore
- Stated preferences in hypothetical scenarios reliably overstate real willingness to pay or act
- Revealed preference, what people actually did, is the more trustworthy measure across many fields
