First Customers (GTM)

How do I know if a channel is actually working or I'm just fooling myself?

A starting point

A channel is working when you can spend a rupee (or an hour) on one end and reliably get a paying customer out the other, and you can do it again next week. Vanity signals like impressions, likes, and signups that never convert are the main way founders fool themselves. Set one honest metric per channel before you start, usually cost per paying customer or replies-to-conversions, and be willing to call a channel dead if it does not move that number in your test window.

Go deeper

Hand-picked from around the web, each with a note on why it earns your time.

3 resources 3 link-checked Read Use

Read

📄 Article
✓ Link checked Free Intermediate

Why we picked it Andrew Chen ran growth at Uber and a16z, and his core idea here, the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs, is exactly why a channel that looked like it was working quietly stops. He pushes you past the big channels everyone claims are working toward the smaller ones that actually move real users before you have scale. It reframes the question from is this channel popular to is this channel still working for me, which is the honest version.

Every Marketing Channel Sucks Right Now

From andrewchen.substack.com by Andrew Chen

  • Every channel decays: what worked six months ago crowds out and gets expensive, so a flat or falling result is the norm, not a personal failure
  • The channels that feel less impressive (the small ones) often convert real users pre-scale better than the big ones you feel you should be on
  • Judge a channel by users it actually brings and keeps, not by traffic or impressions that feel good but do not compound
Open andrewchen.substack.com →
📖 Book
✓ Link checked Paid Intermediate

Why we picked it The book behind the "One Metric That Matters" discipline, which is exactly the mindset you need to judge whether a ship worked instead of drowning in vanity numbers. It ties the right metric to your business type and stage, so you know which signal to watch after a launch. Read it as the reference that makes the rest of this list make sense.

Lean Analytics: Use Data to Build a Better Startup Faster

From O'Reilly / Lean Series by Alistair Croll and Benjamin Yoskovitz 440 pages

  • Pick the One Metric That Matters for your stage and business model, and let it settle the "did it work" argument.
  • Vanity metrics feel good but do not tell you a shipped thing is working: draw a line to real behaviour.
  • Match the metric to where you are (empathy, stickiness, virality, revenue, scale), because the right signal changes as you grow.
Open leananalyticsbook.com →

Use

🛠️ Tool
✓ Link checked Paid Beginner

Why we picked it If you just want to know how many people showed up and how long they stayed, without slowing your page or bolting on a cookie banner, this is a clean option. The script is tiny (around 45 times smaller than Google Analytics), so your landing page stays fast, which itself lowers bounces. Because it does not use cookies or collect personal data, you skip the consent popup that scares visitors off.

Plausible Analytics

From plausible.io by Plausible Insights

  • Tiny script keeps your page loading fast, and a fast page is one big reason fewer people bounce
  • No cookies and no consent banner needed, so you avoid the popup that makes people leave before reading
  • Open source with a simple dashboard, so you are not drowning in reports you will never use
Open plausible.io →

People also ask

How do I figure out which distribution channel is right for my startup? Run experiments, don't guess. Use the Bullseye framework from 'Traction': brainstorm across all ~19 channels, pick 3 promising ones to cheaply test... Intermediate 2 resources → Why does everyone say 'distribution is more important than product'? Because a great product nobody can find dies quietly, while an average product with a strong channel wins the market. Most founders overspend on bu... Intermediate 2 resources → What are the actual distribution channels I can choose from? There are roughly 19 well-known ones, SEO, content, paid ads, viral/referral, email, sales, business development, PR, community, existing platforms... Beginner 1 resource → Should I focus on one channel or spread across many? Focus. Early on, pick one channel that shows real traction and pour your energy into mastering it before diversifying, spreading thin across five c... Intermediate 2 resources → How do the fastest-growing B2B companies find and scale their distribution? They start with high-trust channels, personal network and direct outreach, to land their first ten, then scale on a dominant engine, most often con... Advanced 2 resources → As an Indian founder, how do I think about distribution for a global product? The channel is still the strategy, but pick ones that don't require you to be physically in the buyer's market, content/SEO, product-led self-serve... Advanced 3 resources →