Article · 3 minute read

Hypothetical bias

Catalog of Bias Free Advanced

This is the academic name and definition for exactly the failure mode in the question: people systematically overstate what they would pay or do when asked to imagine a future scenario. It is worth two minutes if you want the research behind why hypotheticals lie to you, not just the startup version of the wisdom.

  • Hypothetical bias is a documented, named phenomenon in behavioral research, not just startup folklore
  • Stated preferences in hypothetical scenarios reliably overstate real willingness to pay or act
  • Revealed preference, what people actually did, is the more trustworthy measure across many fields
Open on catalogofbias.org ↗

The question it answers

  1. What are the questions that quietly ruin an interview by leading the person to the answer I want?

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