Essay · ~15 min read

On Mapping and the Evolution Axis

Simon Wardley · Bits or Pieces? (Simon Wardley) Free Advanced

Wardley shows how every component evolves from genesis to commodity, and that this direction is predictable even when the timing is not. Mapping where a technology sits on that axis helps you see whether it is still novel or steadily commoditising. It is more effortful than most items here, but it gives you an actual map instead of a metaphor.

  • Components evolve predictably from novel genesis toward commodity.
  • The direction of evolution is knowable even when timing is not.
  • Map where a technology sits before betting on it.

The question it answers

  1. How do I tell the difference between a real trend and a passing fad?

Read with it

  1. The definitive essay on where good ideas come from: notice problems you personally have, don't force it. Use it as the lens for... paulgraham.com Essay · ~20 min read How to Get Startup Ideas Paul Graham
  2. The definitive short read on why disruptive ideas get dismissed as toys, and why that dismissal is your opening. It reframes... cdixon.org Article · ~5 min read The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy Chris Dixon
  3. 200+ candid conversations with Indian founders and investors on how they actually found their idea, spotted a trend, and... Apple Podcasts Podcast · podcast series (45-90 min episodes) The Neon Show (formerly 100x Entrepreneur) Siddhartha Ahluwalia
  4. Video · ~25 min How to Get and Evaluate Startup Ideas Jared Friedman
  5. Gross ranked hundreds of startups (his own and others') across five factors, and timing came out on top, ahead of team, idea,... TED Video · ~7 min The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed Bill Gross
  6. Before you spend a weekend guessing, Google Trends gives you a real, free read on whether interest in your idea is rising,... Google Tool Google Trends Google
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