Article · ~10 min read

Wright's Law

ARK Invest Free Intermediate

This is the clearest explainer of the single most useful test in our short answer: does the cost of the enabler fall a fixed percent every time cumulative production doubles. Wright's Law gives you a way to forecast cost curves for batteries, gene sequencing, compute, and more. When a cost curve is real, the trend compounds whether or not anyone is talking about it.

• Costs fall a predictable percent for every doubling of cumulative production.
• A falling cost curve is what makes a trend compound over time.
• Forecast the enabler's cost, not the current level of hype.